FutureForesight has three complimentary areas of expertise:Business building: We have built over 20 SA businesses from concept through to profitabilityModelling: We have built what is arguably the world's most advanced telecommunications valuation modelBid development: We have led and won several, large scale, bids in telecoms, grant funding, and BEE
FutureForesight has three complimentary areas of expertise:
Whilst there are a few industries in which we have strong networks and knowledge, we firmly believe that a specific suite of startup skills allow us to operate in any environment:
StrategyWe love to shape nascent arenas, and have been widly successful in doing so (eg pioneering HIV treatment back when it was illegal to treat in SA, weather, disability, telecoms, etc). It's important that we get involved early, which is invariably when bad decisions get made. We've helped many clients avoid starting down a long road to hell, and we've also helped set 5-year plans that have turned out to be most correct.
Strategy
We love to shape nascent arenas, and have been widly successful in doing so (eg pioneering HIV treatment back when it was illegal to treat in SA, weather, disability, telecoms, etc).
It's important that we get involved early, which is invariably when bad decisions get made. We've helped many clients avoid starting down a long road to hell, and we've also helped set 5-year plans that have turned out to be most correct.
Rapid AdaptationEvery business changes considerably between concept and final profitability. Daily changes in direction require a strong aptitude for ambiguity, but more importantly the fortitude to blow through the frequent and deep pits of despair.This ability needs to be balanced with the fortitude to bear out a 5-year plan; many entrepreneurs fail because 5 years is simply too long for then to envision.
Rapid Adaptation
Every business changes considerably between concept and final profitability. Daily changes in direction require a strong aptitude for ambiguity, but more importantly the fortitude to blow through the frequent and deep pits of despair.
This ability needs to be balanced with the fortitude to bear out a 5-year plan; many entrepreneurs fail because 5 years is simply too long for then to envision.
Broad SkillsIn the early days of a startup, one may play the role of secretary, web developer, sales rep, CFO, and MD - all in one day. All FF team members have this proven ability, but more importantly the humility to do so.This kind of skill is extremely expensive to have around in the long term, and this our focus is always on finding replacements for ourselves. We're great at this, simply because we truly understand what kind of person needs to replace us having done the role personally.
Broad Skills
In the early days of a startup, one may play the role of secretary, web developer, sales rep, CFO, and MD - all in one day. All FF team members have this proven ability, but more importantly the humility to do so.
This kind of skill is extremely expensive to have around in the long term, and this our focus is always on finding replacements for ourselves. We're great at this, simply because we truly understand what kind of person needs to replace us having done the role personally.
Flexible work ethicStartups go through period of no work, to period of four hours sleep per night for three months. We've done it all, and will do it again - happily.
Flexible work ethic
Startups go through period of no work, to period of four hours sleep per night for three months.
We've done it all, and will do it again - happily.
Realistic Fee ModelsEven big business is reluctant to find a risky startup. The FF team has funded several J-curves ourselves, and all team members have the financial depth to go for many many months without income.
Realistic Fee Models
Even big business is reluctant to find a risky startup. The FF team has funded several J-curves ourselves, and all team members have the financial depth to go for many many months without income.
The Ability to Let GoAt the end of the day, the baby belongs to the client. We've let go 21 times to date, and will do so again to start our next project.
The Ability to Let Go
At the end of the day, the baby belongs to the client. We've let go 21 times to date, and will do so again to start our next project.
We take businesses from concept through to reality...at riskFutureForesight was founded by ex-McKinsey managers, and to date we have built 21 profitable SA businesses on behalf of our clients.The model usually start at conception (where strategy is most important) and moves through product development, on to first sale, and then through the rapid growth curve until backbone management is in place.
We take businesses from concept through to reality...at risk
FutureForesight was founded by ex-McKinsey managers, and to date we have built 21 profitable SA businesses on behalf of our clients.
The model usually start at conception (where strategy is most important) and moves through product development, on to first sale, and then through the rapid growth curve until backbone management is in place.
We own and manage what is arguably the most advanced tele-communications valuation model in the worldBuilt over years, and proven across multiple countries, our model covers the whole country and all operators.The output is both a valuation tool, as well as an in-depth strategic and operational guidance tool.With this head-start we are able to provide valautions at a fraction of the time and cost of any other consulting firm
We own and manage what is arguably the most advanced tele-communications valuation model in the world
Built over years, and proven across multiple countries, our model covers the whole country and all operators.
The output is both a valuation tool, as well as an in-depth strategic and operational guidance tool.
With this head-start we are able to provide valautions at a fraction of the time and cost of any other consulting firm
What differentiates our model:Model the entire market: There is a complex dynamic where market share is actually built from a share of gross adds available in the market in any month, which comes from new entrants into the market combined with churn off all operators. Every operator in the market grows by attracting a share of this number. By failing to model all operators in the market, one always ends up with a completely unrealistic model. Always.Focus on revenue credibility: Minor changes in revenue drivers (churn, SGA, MOU, tariffs) make significant differences to the NPV. The unfortunate reality is that even in the most developed markets, these numbers are horribly manipulated by the operators. Our model triangulates such that any overstatement in one number will be self-corrected through the redress in another. Later, output metrics are used to understand where this may be a little imbalanced. Again and again we have defended extremely high value debates between parties where one cherry-picks parameters to adjust NPV to their self-interest, and our model has proven its worth.Segment driven: Key to telecoms strategy is an understanding that ARPU (the tariff/MOU balance) is driven my segment mix. Few people understand that having a lot of low-value customers is less interesting than a few high-value ones as the low value customers churn frequently which has a substantial effect on acquisition costs. Most models we have seen completely miss the strategic insight that emerges when one correctly models how segments shift over time. This requires that each segment has its own churn, SGA, and APRU. Frequently we have shown operators that their marketing strategy is going to drive their mix to a point of diminishing returns that they did not understand.Traffic balanced across whole market: Finally, the bulk of our model manages the balancing of the total market traffic. No operator exists in isolation and there are overt and subtle interactions between operators in a market. Many telecoms models we see fail in that they over-state the individual operators revenue position, as they fail to cross-check that the total market minute volumes are within national ranges. The additional advantages of this approach are correct interconnect calculations (and the slew of strategic insights one can derive once this is properly modelled such as SAs current LRIC impact), as well as the ability to model any operator be the the first mover through to a new entrant. The model thus easily accepts scenarios that include a new license (or even an operators demise).Our model has been used in over 20 countries, by more than 5 sugnificant operators. Details available once we know who is asking (confidentiality reasons)
What differentiates our model:
Our model has been used in over 20 countries, by more than 5 sugnificant operators. Details available once we know who is asking (confidentiality reasons)
We bring the IP that turns a team of networked people into a highly credible bid consortiumWe're not aware of any other team in country with our proven track record. Combined with our apetite for at-risk fee models, we're the ideal partner for leading a bid, and even helping downstream (see our business building page).Naturally we are selective about our partners, and we know how to identify a winning team.
We bring the IP that turns a team of networked people into a highly credible bid consortium
We're not aware of any other team in country with our proven track record. Combined with our apetite for at-risk fee models, we're the ideal partner for leading a bid, and even helping downstream (see our business building page).
Naturally we are selective about our partners, and we know how to identify a winning team.
Examples2 FutureForesight partners, along with Kennedy Memani, and Eugene Reuiters, single handedly built the winning bid for the BEE stake in SA's SNO (now Neotel). This involved extensive telecoms modelling, huge documents and presentations, and SA's first true Broad Based Empowerment structureFutureForesight led MTN on several internaitonal GSM bids, the most notable being Iran which is now a larger property than SA for MTN. GSM bids are competed by the largest firms in the world, at the highest standards, and require modelling of what is undisputably the most complex industry on the planet.When FutureForesight pioneered HIV treatment in SA back in 2000, the process started with competing for USAID funding. Right-to-Care (the organisation we founded with Dr Ian Sanne) is now Africa's largest recipient of this funding, and runs the world's largest treatment site out of Helen Joseph Hospital.Skills providedBusiness modellingConsortium compilationDocument compilationPresentation and defenseOutrageous working hours under intense pressure
Examples
Skills provided
As covered in the overview, our expertise is in startups. However, there are a few industries in which our work has helped us build strong networks and technical insight (in addition to weather which we're particuarly storng in right now; click 2008 achievement).
Healthcare (HIV/AIDS)FutureForesight pioneered treatment within SA. When we started in 2000, treatment and ART was illegal, and there was absolutely no industry experience to build upon. By partnering with a team of HIV medical experts (now SA's leading team), we were largely responsible for gestating this completely nascent arena as demonstrated by the achievements below, but most importantly the deployment and management of the world's largest HIV treatment centre at Helen Joseph Hospital.Of note, our RTC client, led by our team, has grown to be Africa's largest recipient of PEPFAR ('Bush Billion') funding, ahead of the SA Government, and currently receives in the region of R400m/year for HIV treatment.We are particularly proud of our ability to navigate Government attention at a time when others were being closed down when trying to secure public acclaim. Currently we have over 140,000 HIV patients under management.
Healthcare (HIV/AIDS)
FutureForesight pioneered treatment within SA. When we started in 2000, treatment and ART was illegal, and there was absolutely no industry experience to build upon. By partnering with a team of HIV medical experts (now SA's leading team), we were largely responsible for gestating this completely nascent arena as demonstrated by the achievements below, but most importantly the deployment and management of the world's largest HIV treatment centre at Helen Joseph Hospital.
Of note, our RTC client, led by our team, has grown to be Africa's largest recipient of PEPFAR ('Bush Billion') funding, ahead of the SA Government, and currently receives in the region of R400m/year for HIV treatment.
We are particularly proud of our ability to navigate Government attention at a time when others were being closed down when trying to secure public acclaim. Currently we have over 140,000 HIV patients under management.
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TelecommunicationsFutureForesight led the winning bid for the SNO (second Network Operator - now Neotel) license in SA. This was a BEE exercise, and two FF partners worked with two BEE elite, Kennedy Memani and Eugene Ruiters.From here we used our SA modelling expertise to lead several other significant initiatives such as valuing MTN Investecom acquisition assets, modelling Cell-C from scratch, and helping guide Celltel into various African countries. For a while we led MTN on various GSM bids, the most successful being Iran where we were required to set up local partners, compile a complete bid (GSM bids rival only casino bids in their magnitude and oppulance), and work it through the country processes. The complexity of this is best illustrated when one understands that we were two of only 75 foreigners in Iran during the final process, and completely dependent on the SA Embassy and our local partners for any communications.At one stage we constructed the country's most comprehensive model of SA mobile telecoms for Orange's entry into SA as an MVNO, an initiative that ultimately failed on host negotiations.More recently, we have helped in the business build of Zensho, a world-first wifi mesh network for voice. Whilst this technology has still to be proven under load, we already cover a large portion of Soweto.
Telecommunications
FutureForesight led the winning bid for the SNO (second Network Operator - now Neotel) license in SA. This was a BEE exercise, and two FF partners worked with two BEE elite, Kennedy Memani and Eugene Ruiters.
From here we used our SA modelling expertise to lead several other significant initiatives such as valuing MTN Investecom acquisition assets, modelling Cell-C from scratch, and helping guide Celltel into various African countries.
For a while we led MTN on various GSM bids, the most successful being Iran where we were required to set up local partners, compile a complete bid (GSM bids rival only casino bids in their magnitude and oppulance), and work it through the country processes. The complexity of this is best illustrated when one understands that we were two of only 75 foreigners in Iran during the final process, and completely dependent on the SA Embassy and our local partners for any communications.
At one stage we constructed the country's most comprehensive model of SA mobile telecoms for Orange's entry into SA as an MVNO, an initiative that ultimately failed on host negotiations.
More recently, we have helped in the business build of Zensho, a world-first wifi mesh network for voice. Whilst this technology has still to be proven under load, we already cover a large portion of Soweto.
MiningWith an operational background in mining, plus strong strategic skills, we have proven our ability to run a complex turnaround operation at Aquarius Platinum. We have had several forrays into mining businesses, which have been transactional more than our usual business building. Much of our work has been confidential acquisition consulting for large mining houses.More recently, our building of the SA Weather business has leant heavily on our mining networks and insight; weather has a significant impact on mining once one truly understands the operational issues across various mining operations, and mining has become our leading revenue stream.
Mining
With an operational background in mining, plus strong strategic skills, we have proven our ability to run a complex turnaround operation at Aquarius Platinum.
We have had several forrays into mining businesses, which have been transactional more than our usual business building. Much of our work has been confidential acquisition consulting for large mining houses.
More recently, our building of the SA Weather business has leant heavily on our mining networks and insight; weather has a significant impact on mining once one truly understands the operational issues across various mining operations, and mining has become our leading revenue stream.
WeatherAt present, FutureForesight is commercialising the SA Weather Service. We have exclusive rights to the IP and amazing technical aptitude of this organisation, and we are using it to provide geo-specific weather portals to industry.
Weather
At present, FutureForesight is commercialising the SA Weather Service. We have exclusive rights to the IP and amazing technical aptitude of this organisation, and we are using it to provide geo-specific weather portals to industry.
Healthcare
Telecoms
Barry Gonin (Partner)Education: ACMA SIMA - LondonOperational experience: 12 years MTN, last role as GM and right hand man to MD MTN-SA, led startegy and acquisitionsWith FF since: 2005Chris Barker (Partner)Education: BSc Mech Eng, GDE Ing Eng, MSc Ind EngOperational experience: 8 years Unilever, last role as GM Liptons Teas, 3 years McKinsey, last role Engagement Manager.With FF since: 2000Richard Tyrer (Partner)Education: Bsc Electrical Engineering; PR EngOperational experience: 12 years Anglo American Deep level mining operations, Food operations GM and Management trainee, McKinsey for 5 years.With FF since: 2004
Barry Gonin (Partner)
Education: ACMA SIMA - London
Operational experience: 12 years MTN, last role as GM and right hand man to MD MTN-SA, led startegy and acquisitions
With FF since: 2005
Chris Barker (Partner)
Education: BSc Mech Eng, GDE Ing Eng, MSc Ind Eng
Operational experience: 8 years Unilever, last role as GM Liptons Teas, 3 years McKinsey, last role Engagement Manager.
With FF since: 2000
Richard Tyrer (Partner)
Education: Bsc Electrical Engineering; PR Eng
Operational experience: 12 years Anglo American Deep level mining operations, Food operations GM and Management trainee, McKinsey for 5 years.
With FF since: 2004
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Barry
Chris
Rich
Top Floor, Block 3
Whitehills Junction
White Hills Close, Fourways/Lonehill
Overlooking WIlliam Nicol Drive
Office: +27 (0)11-300-7480
Fax: +27 (0)11-465-8928
PowerPoint directions
Future Foresight Group (Pty) Ltd
Reg: 2002/002214/07
VAT: 491 0224 726
Dealflow Investments (Pty) Ltd
Reg: 2006/012912/07
VAT: 426 0235 959
Weather Intelligence Systems (Pty) Ltd
Reg: 2004/005499/07
VAT: 476 0216 418
FFG Business Development CC
Reg: 2001/018880/23
VAT: 460 0196 291
Achievements
SA's first locally developed reality TV show: Idols but for Stephen Spielberg.
Played on SABC3 for 3 series (years). before we accepted that the 'reality' part of TV in SA is that there really is no money in this - no matter how successful and talked about the final product :)
As an aside, in 2004 Stephen Spielberg announced his intention to pursue an identical show in the US - we still hold the FRAPA format rights.
The Second Network License competes against the incumbent state monopoly fixed line operator in SA.
This team led the bid for the BEE stake in the license, beating eight other consortiums backed by international operators such as SwedeTel & BT.
The process included building a complete model of SA telecoms, pulling together broad-based empowerment structures and partnerships, raising funding commitments of ZAR2bn (at the time, SA's largest BEE transaction), and compiling a substantial and professional tender document.
Disclosure: We retain a small equity stake in the SNO.
FF is the team behind most of SA's HIV treatment success having pioneered much of this incredibly nascent arena (starting in 2000).
Our client is now the largest recipient of US AID funding in Africa, and together we have built the largest HIV treatment centre in the world (treating 1-in-4 of SA's patients, with 700 direct and 4000 indirect employees).
FF's HIV work includes building one of SA's largest pharmacy groups (RightMed, an HIV-only pharmacy), and the building of one of SA's leading workplace treatment companies for Alexander Forbes (which our primary client recently bought back off them).
In 2003 Government decided to restructure Biotech funding in SA. FF guided on the implementation of a V.C. model, and today all biotech funding is done through the well known entity we helped form and build; BioPad.
FF worked on the lengthy internaitonal expansion drive for MTN. Numerous forrays including Algeria and Saudi culminated in securing the mobile license for Iran.
At one stage two FF partners landed in Iran as the sole, trusted, custodians of the bid document and bid fee, that at the time exceeded MTN's market cap in value and was of considerable value to oposition bidders.
Today, Iran is a larger value contributor to MTN than SA.
In 2005, two FF partners took over the management of Aquarius Platinum's Marikana open pit operation.
In a 6-month turn-around, the mine moved from R10/m loss, to R15/m profit, and sustained a profit through to the end of the mine life.
The process involved every aspect of business and contractor management, with brutal decisions required to manage away multi-billion Rand sub-contracts that had gone wrong over the prior years.
The FF team worked directly for the CEO of MTN leading numerous acquisition and blue-sky projects, in which winning the SA Lottery operation bid (to replace Uthingo) was one such project.
In the final hour, negotiations resulted in Gidani (Cyril Rhamaposa's consortium) taking over the lottery operation, but MTN secured the traffic which represented 80% of the value they were after.
Zensho is a world-first in WiFi meshed networks for voice. Using Tropos technology, we have built a network over Soweto and are currently the leading (only) telecoms player to have constructed a working network based on this low-cost technology.
Zensho is a telecoms model for Africa, and offers unlimited on-net calling for R99/m.
In 2008 FF rebuilt the SA Weather Service website (SA's second-most traficked web site) as the precursor to commercialising the Weather Service.
After a January launch, Weather Intelligence Solutions became cash-flow positive in mid-2009, and will become a substantial business over the next 3 years.
Building on SAWS' strong technical competence, we have developed a wide range of new products geared as industry, disaster management, and even golf courses and schools.
After years of building businesses in nascent arenas, in high tech industries, we think this may be our most exciting project yet.
